A Review of Gas Security of Supply within the GB Gas Market – from the Present to 2035.

Descriptions

DECC is looking for a contractor or contractors to assess the level of security with regard to the supply of natural gas in GB, from the present to 2035 (20 years). This work is expected to provide new insights rather than replicate existing studies. It will follow a staged approach: Stage 1 – Understanding risks The contractor will produce a comprehensive list of risks to GB’s ability to meet gas demand needs, attach a probability to each of these risks, and identify correlated risks. This stage should answer the question: what risks is the GB gas system exposed to, how likely are these, and which risks are correlated? Stage 2 – Assessing impact and identifying scenarios The contractor will make a high level assessment of the impact of individual risks occurring on the gas system. The contractor will then identify (with DECC and Ofgem) the key combinations of vulnerabilities which could result in a near or actual disruption to gas supplies. Questions answered: is any individual risk likely to cause unmet demand? What combination of scenarios is likely to cause unmet demand? Stage 3 – Stress testing the system The contractor will model a selection of the combination events identified in the preceding stage, testing how the market would respond in order to assess whether gas supplies would be disrupted, and to what extent. Questions answered: how will the market respond to the key risks? Would demand be met? If not, what is the volume of demand that is not met and what are the sources of unmet demand? This analysis will provide Ministers with the information they need to understand the expected level of security from the present to c.2035.