APPLYING UKCP09 SCENARIOS IN WALES

Descriptions

Climate change is one of the most important challenges facing the world. It is not simply an environmental problem; it has profound implications for the economy, and for the wellbeing of people in Wales and across the world. The Welsh Assembly Government is committed to playing its part in meeting that challenge and addressing the causes and consequences of climate change.Organisations need good evidence (which includes a measure of the uncertainties involved) to help them consider the risks that a changing climate might pose and plan what they should do to increase resilience and reduce those risks. The UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) have been developed to do this.The UKCP09 tell us that our climate is changing and that over the coming decades we are likely to see hotter/drier summers, warmer/wetter winters and an increase in the number and severity of extreme weather events such as heat-waves and heavy rain.The earlier that Wales starts to prepare, by understanding our vulnerability to the impact of climate change and increasing the resilience to these impacts, the better equipped we will be to cope in the future.The aim of this research is to focus on the Assembly’s areas of responsibility and identify gaps requiring attention; using a localised case study approach develop and appraise options; and to develop best practice relating to the use of scenarios in the case studies. This can be divided in to four parts:Phase 1: Mapping and gap analysis of adaptation work being undertaken by the Welsh Assembly Government and other bodies in relation to the adaptation priorities Phase 2: Application of UKCP09 tools to the identified case studies to assess their vulnerabilities to change.Phase 3: For each case study indentify the risks, potential impacts and develop risk management options.Phase 4: Develop an implementation plan to determine how risk reduction may be implemented, defining responsibilities and constraints.The Welsh Assembly Government, on behalf of the Welsh Ministers, will be conducting this pocurement exercise through the etenderwales portal https://etenderwales.bravosolution.co.uk. Tender documents and other information must be downloaded from and returned through this portal. If you require any further assistance the BravoSolution helpdesk is available on:Email: help@bravosolution.co.uk Phone: 0800 3684850 / Fax: 020 7060 0480Full information in accessing the portal is found in Section VI.3.