Development and testing of Operational Models of Bovine Tuberculosis in British Cattle and Badgers - Phases III and IV

Descriptions

The aim of this TB Modelling Initiative (TBMI) is to bring together the foremost experts on TB modelling within the UK to produce an operational modelling framework of bTB transmission and control. This project uses the best available bTB epidemiology evidence (collected from statutory surveillance testing), emphasizing robustness over complexity, to develop a long term, viable, TB modelling framework. Phases I & II are complete with development of a GB-wide TB cattle model, which has been used to assess cattle vaccination scenarios to inform possible vaccine deployment options. Phase III Objectives: 1. Compare TBMI to other TB models (EBP & BoTMEW) 2. Improve model robustness 3. Include pre- and post- movement testing 4. Implement a simple badger model 5. Prepare documentation for model transfer into APHA Phase IV objectives (subject to review March 3017): 1. Complete model comparisons 2. Develop predictive cattle movement models to model large scale changes in movement, e.g. to restrict movement of cattle away from vaccinated areas, preventing them from moving into unvaccinated areas. 3. Ensure model robustness considering updates to the model since phase II. 4. Prepare documentation for model transfer into APHA