FM22085 - UK Business as Usual (BAU) Emissions Projections and Marginal Abatement Cost Curves (MACC) Data Procurement - 2022 Update

Descriptions

**Please note this is an Award Notice and not a call for competition, this Contract has been awarded via the CCS RM6126 Research and Insights DPS .** The Department have appointed a supplier to provide BEIS with tailored data sets of Marginal Abatement Cost Curves (MACCs) with their related Business-As-Usual emissions (BAUs). The datasets will need to have broad consistency, as specified and agreed, with BEIS internal assumptions (such as on energy demand, energy supply, policy impact analysis and resulting emissions) under a number of scenarios. These sets are for central, low and high BAU emissions scenarios. Between the different scenarios, we plan to vary baseline policy assumptions. Additionally, we require sensitivities that vary Fossil Fuel Price and Growth assumptions. These data and supporting documentation will then be used in analysis to meet these objectives: - Evidence to underpin updated UK (short-term) traded carbon values (from the UK BCPM). - A robust analytical capability within BEIS to estimate the effects of policy options for the future of emissions trading in the UK and for Net Zero in the UK by 2050. These will be used as inputs in the UK BEIS Carbon Price Model (UK BCPM), and other models in development within the Department. The contractor will need to produce: i. An agreed approach to obtain consistency with BEIS internal assumptions (such as on energy demand, energy supply, policy impact analysis and resulting emissions - see suggested methodology- Section 3 of this specifcation). ii. Business As Usual (BAU) emissions and Marginal Abatement Cost Curves (MACCs) for the UK ETS: as consistent with the scenarios set out in the sections below for central, high and low scenarios. These are: a. UK greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the years 2015 - 2050, to be disaggregated by sectors and technology within the traded sector and non-traded sector. We will be willing to consider various granularity of by time (e.g. yearly vs 5 yearly) given the prioritisation of other variable and the time available. b. Corresponding Marginal Abatement Cost Curves (MACCs) for the period. iii. an accompanying technical report. To set out the reasoning for their approach, the contractor will also be required to provide:  i. an explanation of their proposals for consistency with BEIS internal assumptions,  ii. the assumptions and methodology they propose to use in detail with reasoning, iii. a description of the quality assurance process and checks they will undertake and iv. evidence to indicate that their analysis - and associated quality assurance - will be robust and fit for purpose