Research to Operations to Research (R2O2R)

Descriptions

'Space Weather Implementation, Measurement, Modelling and Risk' (SWIMMR), was a £19.9m UKRI SPF funded programme led by STFC from 2019, and which largely concluded in 2023. Several of the projects were targeted at space weather scientific modelling gaps, with the aim of bringing them into operation for forecast capabilities in the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC). The project 'S3' stood up systems and enabled collaboration between academic partners and the Met Office space weather programme, bringing a platform 'sandbox environment' and portal for monitoring outputs into use at the Met Office (MO) where our scientists worked with several academic partners to bring their models into use.

Whilst the original SWIMMR programme made this collaboration possible, there is much work remaining to bring the models into working operational use by the target date of September 2026, the Research to Operations to Research (R2O2R) project is the next stage in this Programme.

The Space Weather CSA with the Department for Science and Technology (DSIT) sets out a required output for the Met Office to Support the validation, integration and exploitation of new capabilities and data delivered through the SPF SWIMMR Programme.

Met Office Space Weather (MOSW) has agreed with funding partner DSIT to deliver several targets for the next phase of work:

Evidence of user need and user requirement to shape model use and output (MOSWOC being the primary user, with several end-users being the recipients of forecasting products).

Technical and scientific requirements within MOSW for fully onboarding, working with and supporting the models and/or their outputs in operational settings. (Whilst the 'S3' platform and portal were helpful for the early stages of model collaboration, they are not able to support long term model and output development and operation).

In terms of the projects to achieve modelling capability, we have agreed a number of these and their priority levels with the academic institutions who own the models.

The partner BAS led the 'Sat-Risk' project in the SWIMMR Programme (2019-2024). BAS developed an (Outer) Radiation Belt Model ('BAS-RBM') which will provide nowcasting and forecasting of up to 24 hours on radiation risk and exposure at specific orbits. This will be developed into products mainly for the satellite industry to mitigate risks of degradation due to space weather events.